Five long term problems
The purpose of this is not to suggest that a sudden collapse is imminent, in fact, it is in contrast to that idea. However, I do believe that challenging times are on the horizon for Canada, and for many, they are already difficult. I would like to present some of the key issues that I foresee and propose ways to prepare for them. I believe that these concerns are grounded in any reality and are not as dramatic as a nuclear war. It is important to note that these are all long-term issues, ranging from 3 to 10 years (if you can do it), and it is crucial to begin preparations as soon as possible. Although this discussion is primarily focused on Canada, some concerns are applicable globally. This is just to advocate for three very real issues in any reality we want to live in.
- Grid problems.
The power grid in North America (I don’t know about other regions, but I’ve seen in the news that the US and Mexico are just as affected too) has been neglected for a long time. It also doesn’t help that there are some crazy people who sometimes shoot at substations. There is a chance that a foreign enemy might try to hack the grid, but I doubt it – they would start a war they don’t want, if they did that. I’m not too worried about CMEs (solar storms) – we can detect them before they hit us – but they have caused some local outages in a few places in the last half century (Canada had some trouble in March of 1989, but they fixed it in less than a day). I think most of the risk comes from more severe weather – hurricanes, heat waves, wildfires, and ice storms can all cut off our power for days. This is how I see it: The lines that connect power plants to substations and then to homes and businesses are vulnerable to extreme weather, especially when trees and plants are involved. There are new pests like spotted lantern fly and beech leaf disease that are killing trees in some areas. Dead trees = kindle and less fresh air. Droughts also weaken trees, and a short and dry winter means more fuel for fires. We’ve had more hurricanes and large windstorms than ever before, which means: more fallen trees to start fires. There are not enough skilled and licensed tree workers who can safely trim or remove trees near the power lines without causing a blackout, and the growing number of plant diseases adds more work on top of the regular maintenance. I strongly recommend having backup power sources, and I’ve been thinking about getting a hand pump for my well, so I don’t have to worry about losing water. But the only way to be ready and prepared for the future is honestly to go off grid. We no longer live in a day and age where it’s viable to rely on government services and society to help you. Wind turbines, solar panels, generators, batteries, etc. That will.
A power outage that lasts for a day may be an inconvenience, but it is not catastrophic. Most people can handle a power outage for a day – houses don’t get too hot or cold, food doesn’t spoil, you can use a battery-powered radio for some entertainment, there are board games, sleep longer, etc. But after three days, things get harder – food starts to rot, people with wells need bottled water, the hot water tank starts to get bacteria from being at room temperature for too long, etc.
Some people might run out of food after a week, and gas might be scarce, so getting around can be difficult.
After two weeks, things can get really bad. Some people think solar power is the answer. It’s a good idea, but it has its limits and thus is not a panacea. For example, Buffalo NY, had a snowstorm recently that trapped the city for days; and the sky was cloudy. Solar panels didn’t work. In some places, this is not a problem; in others, solar is not an option. But you may live in a windy area or live by a stream of moving water, etc. Obtaining this is only half the battle though. What good are your solar panels if they aren’t facing the sun, are on your roof (ie: can’t clean them or brush of snow), etc. Design and engineering are very important here to ensure you stay up and running as hassle-free as possible, with potential backups. Then storing parts too.
Preps: solar if it suits your situation (with proper design, it should) and you have the money. This is only a good option if you also have a place to store excess energy and properly size the setup. You also need to carry spare parts or panels on hand in case something happens.
A wind turbine would work wonders for many, especially in atlantic and coastal locations, but you also need parts and a way to guard/protect them through heavy and overly windy storms. Bonus points if you can store this energy too.
Hydroelectric. The smallest group of people will have this option, but it’s a pretty steady and reliable source of energy, with one of the lowest needs for battery storage, which can help cut costs. Remember spare parts.
A generator works, if you have the money and can store gas or propane (gas is a much cheaper way to store the energy than a battery since it’s still under $2/litre, lasts months and is only used when you need to rotate it or use it. Generators are tried, tested, and true on demand energy answers. They require maintenance, though. Run a generator for at least half an hour once a month if it uses gas, every six months if it uses propane. But there’s another solution that people often forget; learn to live without electricity as much as possible.
I cannot tell you how to incorporate or practice this. We’re all part of Rynue, so we believe in less consumption and capitalism. Part of that means having less anyway. Trying to live a sustainable and renewable life is a lifestyle, and part of that is actively consuming less power as is.
If you can – it might be hard for people with kids, especially in school – try to go without power for a day every month. Also, test your preps. Turn off the circuit breaker and see how you do. You’ll learn a lot the first few times you try it, especially in July and February when you have no heat or AC. - The next pandemic
Pandemics are inevitable and recurring events. Covid-19 was a devastating example that, in Canada, took over 52,000 lives. Covid-19 also disrupted our lives for over a year before we could control it and protests got out of hand, etc. Opening back up still hasn’t seemed to undo the damage of unemployment, supply shortages, debt, and loneliness. We still see the effects from ramping up for a future that wasn’t as close as Big Tech had hoped, and now we live in a world where in-person, remote, or hybrid is up for heavy debate (spoiler: remote can save the environment and solve some housing problems and homeless problems). Most of us were not prepared for such a crisis, except maybe some experts. We should not forget what we learned from this experience, because it could happen again anytime. Perhaps in a few years (or decades) another pandemic will strike. It could be mild or deadly; we can’t know for sure. But we do know how to deal with it; we need to teach the next generation. Keep masks handy, save money for emergencies, use online services when possible, and keep your hands clean. Luckily, preparing for pandemics is similar to preparing for severe weather events – you might have to stay home for a few weeks during the worst times or lockdowns. - Job loss and inflation
Over the past few decades, there has been a trend of job instability in many fields. This is not just due to advances in technology, but also social and economic factors, such as the concentration of wealth among a small group of people and the disruptive actions of international bad actors. In order to prepare for the future, it is important to have a financial cushion, even if it is just enough to last a few months. This can help to weather any social or economic problems that may arise, such as social unrest, natural disasters, or changes in the tax code. We’re not exactly the best to share this message as all our money goes into fixing up our old house and building our homestead, but one can argue trying to get to the point where you are self-reliant will also allow you to whether the above storms so long as you can pay your bills.
To make ends meet, it can be helpful to partner with neighbours and to share money-saving ideas. Maybe go in together on a whole cow and split it to lower the cost of meat over time (but will need more upfront), buy some shares or investments together, share crops, etc.
Many think OpenAI and AI in general is coming for their jobs. Let me clarify this a bit.
Large Language Models, Codex, whatever. They’re all the same thing, the next step in AI development, only this isn’t AI.
Large Language Models (LLMs) like GPT-4 and ChatGPT/OpenAI are advanced tools that generate human-like text based on patterns learned from a massive amount of data. They are often referred to as “AI” because they can perform various language-related tasks, such as answering questions, generating text, and even having conversations. However, it is essential to understand that these models are not truly “AI” in the sense of artificial general intelligence (AGI), which would allow them to comprehend and analyze complex information as humans do.
Instead, LLMs like ChatGPT/OpenAI primarily rely on predictive search algorithms. These algorithms analyze the input they receive and search through their learned patterns to find the most likely response based on the context. The model then selects the most appropriate response from the top results and generates text based on that choice. In effect, the model is not “thinking” or “learning” in the way humans do, but rather relying on statistical patterns it has learned from the text it has been trained on.
It is important to note that this predictive search approach is highly effective for many language-related tasks. LLMs can generate coherent and contextually appropriate text, often making them appear more intelligent than they actually are. However, their limitations are also evident, as they struggle with understanding abstract concepts, making logical inferences, and responding to novel situations that fall outside their training data.
In summary, while LLMs like ChatGPT/OpenAI are impressive tools that can perform various language-related tasks, they are not true AI in the sense of AGI. Instead, they rely on predictive search algorithms that analyze patterns in the training data to generate responses based on statistical probabilities.
So what does this truly mean for you? Aside from the fact that these things are data mining us to no end and people are just providing company secrets to the point where numerous large organizations are blocking access to this (and that list is growing), if you understand the above you see that this is a fancy search engine with a lot of hype and lipstick. Open AI also has a 10 billion dollar investment from Microsoft where they get 75% of profit until their money is paid back, and then they own 49% of it. It’s in OpenAI’s best interest to keep Microsoft happy and do what they say. It’s in Microsoft’s best interest to keep their customers happy, as that’s where most of their money comes from. Microsoft has a 10 billion dollar product right now that has an active, very large and growing list of people blocking it. However, Edge and Bing have gained a lot of popularity recently with both consumer and enterprise markets and a part of that the new bingai, which is ChatGPT all things considered. Microsoft’s power will end up settling this with a fancy, smooth, and brand-new search engine. This will user in search engine 2.0 to the world, which is great since Google Search sucks and is filled with ads and paid results if anyone has actually ever tried or used something else. What else is it coming for? The jobs! Look at its other main use and popularity. It’s coming after high school kids and entry level jobs. It’s going to hurt people trying to gain experience to get a real and not contract job in design, copy, and possible co-op research assistance. But ask any photographer on their thoughts on a high school kid buying a DSLR and kit lens and trying to sell photography services online. Ask any designer about a high school kid pirating illustrator and offering logo design, etc. It’s not here for you. Not yet. - Climate Change
For just about everyone, the problems show up indirectly. The southwest US is drying up, and that won’t change in your lifetime – but you’ll see it in increased water costs (inflation) and grid issues. Food choices will change – sooner or later, meat will become a luxury item and food costs in general will rise further. Diseases may spread more easily and evolve faster, as climate migrations of both people and animals create new mixes of pathogens. It’s not that people will drown as oceans rise up overnight, but more areas will become more expensive to live in. As weather damage increases, insurance rates go up, more electricity gets used to compensate for temperature extremes., etc. In Canada climate change is an economic issue. At least, at first. All this also assumes status quo and no gigantic WW3 or some other crazy or unseen disaster coming. The end of 2023 and start of 2024 is going to show us some stuff we haven’t seen before. 2025 will mark a shift in the world and that will render some of this useless. - The end of natural resources
This is kind of self explanatory. Natural resources are natural. We’ll run out of them. We’re polluting getting them and hollowing out the earth while doing so. We, as people, always talk about nature, a balance, how everything happens for a reason, that every little thing has a purpose, etc. Well, Oil isn’t in the earth for us, and we use it for various things including lubricant. Is it possible, that’s why it’s in the earth too and some of these droughts, or earthquakes, or anything may be caused by us removing this in quantities that are not sustainable?
Consider this too:
The year is 2040. The world has reached a tipping point of resource depletion and environmental degradation. The air is thick with smog, the water is contaminated with chemicals, and the soil is eroded and barren. The forests have been cleared, the oceans have been overfished, and the fossil fuels have been burned. The population has grown to 10 billion people, but the food supply is dwindling. Hunger, disease, and conflict are rampant.
The world’s economy has collapsed, as there is no more growth or innovation. The rich have hoarded the remaining resources, while the poor have been left to fend for themselves. The governments have lost their legitimacy and authority, as people have turned to violence and chaos. The social fabric has unraveled, as trust and cooperation have been replaced by fear and hatred.
The world is facing a dark and uncertain future, as there is no hope or solution in sight. The world has run out of natural resources, and it may be too late to save it.
Are you prepared?
Note that I didn’t talk about unlikely things like pole shifts and I didn’t add disinformation to the list. I actually think this is a major concern and that most people have no idea how much chaos it causes. Disinformation campaigns over COVID-19 cost (at my own estimate) 400,000 unnecessary deaths in the US. They’re feeding extremism and causing people to turn their back on democratic institutions, like elections. In a very real way, it’s the biggest problem facing most governments today. The only prep is don’t listen to the bullshit and stay away from Big Tech echo chambers. We need to get off this weird world we created and try again. I’ve come to the conclusion that there are simply a lot of people who love to listen to bullshit and have no way to determine when they’re being lied to and manipulated. There are anecdotal examples where people will talk about something I was actually an expert in but because I was just adding to the conversation it was opinion only and because I didn’t have a YouTube channel I clearly wasn’t an authority on the topic. I can only imagine the amplification of this on basically every topic and it’s soul crushing and insulting to the people actually working and becoming experts. This isn’t just a job for some us, and some of us read more than headlines.
All I can suggest is, spend more time in the garden and less online. Vegetables don’t hate anybody.
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